Speaking at the Token2049 conference in Singapore, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, covered a range of topics, from the macroeconomic implications of debt and AI to the potential of cryptocurrency in the face of these global shifts.
Beaming light on his expectation for the next bull run, he said that the crypto space should expect it as quickly as the early months of 2024. Arthur noted that the 2024 bull run will be the largest ever experienced in the entire financial market.
“This will be the biggest bull market not only in the cryptocurrency field but also in the risk asset field since World War II and the Great Depression.”
Declined birth rate of the elites
The reason behind his projection is that statistics reveal that the birth rate of the rich has declined over time which will result in a population growth deficit.
Another reason for this is that nations around the world have increasingly resorted to debt-fueled economic growth, with money printing becoming a common solution.
“At the end of the day, we are borrowing from the future and building today. It is then hoped that more people will fill this growth in the future so that they can continue to be economically active,” he said.
“So who can drive that growth to pay off the debt when there aren’t enough kids? What solutions have central banks and governments proposed to address this problem?”
Citing Robin Paul’s three indices of what drives GDP (population growth, productivity, and debt), and the heightened state of global debt which reached 360% after COVID-19, he noted that most central banks around the world are bent on printing more money as the best option to sustain global economic growth.
However the former CEO noted that printing more money will always come with currency devaluation.
Liquidity and technology
If this happens, then there will be more liquidity in the market than ever before. Reflecting on this, he addressed the audience by saying that “in the past decade, one of these two factors (liquidity of fiat currency and certain technologies in the ecosystem) has always been the reason for us to start a bull market, but we have not yet encountered a bull market where both of these aspects appear at the same time.”
In his opinion, the combination of excess liquidity flooding the market and the need to launch new financial solutions in both the crypto industry and the traditional space has the potential to trigger a massive bull run in 2024.
