Adam Back warns against selling Bitcoin

Adam Back, Blockstream’s CEO and an early Bitcoin pioneer, compares selling Bitcoin to “playing in a really bad house-rate casino.”

In Bitcoin’s early days, the Blockstream CEO learned that trying to time the market results in losing bets due to its high volatility.

During a recent interview with Unchained, Back explained how heavily the odds weigh against those who try to time the market.

His perspective comes from his early days in the Bitcoin world, a time when the asset’s price surged rapidly despite significant volatility.

“So […] if you see something that’s going up exponentially but with volatility, if you sell it to time the market a bit falling, the odds work against you,” Back said, adding:

“The trend line is up and to the right, exponential, and so there’s extremely bad trading odds attached to selling because you’re really hoping that it falls.”

Throughout its history, Bitcoin experienced multiple significant corrections, with bear markets frequently dropping its price over 80%.

However, investors who stayed the course realized significant profits.

Bitcoin generated an astonishing total return exceeding 39,000% over the last ten years, supporting Back’s argument about the dangers of poorly timed exits.

Even as Bitcoin’s maturity raises fears that it will reduce returns, Back suggested this cycle might break that pattern.

He noted that growing interest at both the corporate and governmental levels may catalyze sustained growth.

Firms like Strategy continue accumulating Bitcoin, sometimes employing unconventional financing methods such as convertible notes. This approach offers both direct and indirect exposure to the asset.

Similarly, institutional and sovereign entities also take strategic actions. Making headlines, Abu Dhabi allocated $408.5 million to BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

Simultaneously, political shifts create a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.

President Donald Trump issued an executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve, with states like New Hampshire and Texas following suit.

Back interprets these changes as steps toward mainstream adoption and renewed rapid growth, even though significant volatility remains part of the journey.