Trump’s crypto order may impact Bitcoin’s cycle: Bitwise

While crypto will not completely move beyond its four-year cycle, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s investment chief, argues that market dips should be less significant and shorter-lived.

Hougan warned on Jan. 29 that Trump’s wide-reaching Jan. 23 directive, along with SEC policy shifts, has ushered in the “full mainstreaming of crypto,” giving banks and Wall Street the opportunity to “move aggressively into the space.”

While crypto ETFs have the potential to bring in billions from investors, he argued that Trump’s initiative to create a digital asset stockpile and regulatory framework will drive trillions.

Throughout its 16-year history, Bitcoin has exhibited a four-year cycle, experiencing losses in 2014, 2018, and 2022, while setting new record highs in the years between these corrections.

Experts expect a market correction in 2026, provided the cycle remains intact.

While the industry won’t “fully overcome” the four-year cycle, Hougan expects that “any pullback will be shorter and shallower than in years past.”

“The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026.”

Hougan explained that earlier downturns stemmed from the SEC’s ICO enforcement and the collapse of Mt. Gox, while the 2022 market drop resulted from bankruptcies of major firms such as FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, BlockFi, and Celsius.

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Hougan said the full impact of Trump’s executive order will take time to manifest, as David Sacks will need to create a regulatory framework, and Wall Street’s leading firms will require additional time to harness the full potential of crypto.

Wall Street banks can now manage crypto assets with greater ease after the SEC decided to cancel the Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 rule, which previously required them to classify crypto holdings as liabilities.

Hougan stressed Bitwise’s $200,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, indicating that it could be achieved with or without a Bitcoin reserve strategy in place.