Chainalysis estimates that illicit crypto volumes in 2024 will approach $41 billion, potentially reaching $51 billion as more criminal-related addresses are identified.
Despite this, the percentage of illicit transactions compared to the overall crypto market will be at its lowest in three years.
Chainalysis forecasts these volumes, yet they will constitute a smaller share of the total market.
The blockchain analytics firm suggested in a January 15 blog post that last year’s illicit crypto volume, which reached almost $41 billion, could increase by an additional $10 billion, influenced by historical trends and the discovery of more illicit addresses.
“2024 was likely a record year for inflows to illicit actors as these figures are lower-bound estimates based on inflows to the illicit addresses we’ve identified up to today,” Chainalysis wrote.
“A year from now, these totals will be higher as we identify more illicit addresses and incorporate their historic activity into our estimates,” it said.
The crypto market revived in 2024 after a slump that began in the second half of 2022, driven by US exchange-traded funds and Donald Trump’s election, bringing the market to a peak value surpassing $3.9 trillion by mid-December.
Even as crypto use increased, the illicit crypto volume share fell to 0.14% in 2024, down from 0.61% in 2023, which is the lowest level since 2021, when it stood at 0.12%.
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“Similarly, we expect this share to rise over time,” Chainalysis said. “Although historically these rates consistently remain below 1%.”
Transnational organized crime groups increasingly rely on crypto to carry out traditional crimes like money laundering, drug trafficking, human trafficking, and wildlife trade, the company explained.
The blockchain analytics firm noted that approximately $11 billion of the $40.9 billion in illicit crypto volume for the year was directed toward wallets engaged in crimes like hacking, extortion, trafficking, and scams, in addition to those providing services for these illegal activities.
According to Chainalysis, stablecoins continued to lead in illicit fund transfers, representing nearly two-thirds of such volumes, while they also made up about 77% of the overall cryptocurrency market.
